What could a Burnham government mean for your business?

Andy Burnham is expected to be appointed Prime Minister on 20 July. Attention is now turning to the economic direction of the incoming government.

For most owner-managed businesses, the right response is straightforward:

Pay attention, understand where your business could be affected and avoid making decisions based on speculation.

Where could businesses be affected?

Business rates and property costsBusiness rates are one of the clearest areas of possible change. Burnham has proposed additional support for pubs and some high-street businesses. He has also suggested that larger warehouses and out-of-town developments could pay more to help fund this.

This could affect:

• Distributors and wholesalers with warehouses
• Logistics businesses (including businesses who rely on Third Party Logistics (3PL)
• Manufacturers with larger sites
• Multi-site businesses
• Other companies occupying high-value commercial property

No change has been confirmed. However, property-intensive businesses should understand their current exposure.

For each site, you may want to review:

• The rateable value
• The rates currently paid
• Any reliefs being claimed
• Responsibility for rates under the lease
• Forthcoming rent reviews or lease breaks
• The effect of a 10%, 20% or 30% increase on annual profit and cash.

The main point of this exercise, is to assess the potential cost before any new rules are announced.

Regional investment and public contractsGreater regional control could change how money is spent on:

• Housing and construction
• Transport and utilities
• Industrial sites and regeneration
• Skills and apprenticeships
• Local grants
• Public sector contracts

This may create opportunities for manufacturers, engineers, contractors and project-led businesses. However, larger contracts can also create pressure. Businesses may need to fund materials, people costs and equipment well before they are paid by the customer.

Potential suppliers should check that they have:

• Current management accounts and forecasts
• Suitable quality and safety accreditations
• Evidence of financial standing
• Sufficient operational capacity
• Enough working capital
• A clear understanding of payment terms and contract margins

Winning more work is only valuable if the business can deliver it profitably and fund the growth.

Support for UK industryThere has also been discussion about strengthening UK manufacturing and domestic supply chains. This could benefit businesses involved in manufacturing, engineering, construction, energy, logistics and other specialist services. However, owners should not invest in new machinery, premises or people simply because government support may become available. Whether this is any form of additional grant support, or funding options, is unknown.

Any investment should still answer five questions:

1. Is there clear customer demand?
2. What sales are needed to break even?
3. Can the business fund the working capital or cash requirement?
4. What happens if contracts or support are delayed?
5. local grants
6. Does the investment make commercial sense without government help?

What about potential tax changes?There is already increasing speculation about possible changes affecting capital gains tax, business sales, pensions, property and personal wealth. At this stage, there is not enough confirmed detail for owners to take action. Business owners should not rush to sell, restructure, transfer shares or change succession plans because of political commentary. As details and intentions, and more detail behind the plans become clearer, this may occasion a review of your situation ahead of the next Budget.

However, owners already considering a major succession or exit decision should make sure they understand:

• What they want personally from the business
• The current ownership and group structure
• The likely value of the business
• The tax position under current rules
• How long a sale, succession or restructuring would take.

Preparation and awareness is always going to be a good thing, but avoid knee-jerk reactions.

What should business owners do now?

Update the forecastMaintain a clear 12 to 24 month profit and cashflow forecast.

Test the effect of:

• Higher property costs
• Increased employment and other operating/people costs
• Additional growth requiring recruitment or equipment
• Delayed customer payments.

Know how much cash headroom the business has and what would cause the plan to change.

Quantify property exposureReview rates, rents, service charges and lease responsibilities across every site. Multi-site businesses should assess the total group impact, not each property in isolation.

Review investment decisions properlyContinue assessing recruitment, machinery, premises and acquisitions on their commercial merits. Do not include possible grants, tax reliefs or public contracts in forecasts until they are sufficiently certain.

Check whether the business is ready for larger contractsBusinesses that could benefit from infrastructure or regional investment opportunities should review ability to quote/win tenders, accreditations, operational capacity and working capital/cash requirements.

Prepare major owner decisionsOwners considering a sale, succession or restructuring should clarify their objectives and understand the current position. Be ready to respond to confirmed changes, but do not act on speculation.

What should businesses watch next?

The important developments will be:

• The appointment of the Chancellor and economic team
• Any Budget or fiscal statement in coming months
• Detailed business rates proposals
• Regional funding announcements
• Public procurement programmes/frameworks being announced
• Confirmed tax changes affecting companies or their owners
   

Our view

The change in Prime Minister is not, on its own, something business owners can take much immediate action as a result.

The direction of policy may create additional costs for some businesses and opportunities for others. The immediate priority is to understand exposure, maintain financial visibility and prepare for decisions before they become urgent. As always, business owners knowing where they are financially and timely accurate financial reporting on a regular basis, along with a updated accurate forecast, still remains key essential tools for successfully running a business.

At Oldfield, we help owner managed businesses assess what business, economic and tax changes mean for the business, the owner and the decisions ahead.

Please note: This article is for general information purposes only and was correct at the time of writing on 16 July 2026. It does not constitute financial or tax advice. Tax rules, legislation and government policies are subject to change, and their application depends on individual circumstances. We recommend seeking advice from a suitably qualified adviser. No responsibility for loss occasioned by any person acting or refraining from action as a result of this material can be accepted.